Estimate likely contract value before proposal work starts.

Public Data Sources To Check

• SAM.gov opportunity record: notice type, description, set-aside, NAICS, PSC, due date, attachments, incumbent hints, and period of performance clues.
• USAspending award history: comparable awards by agency, recipient, NAICS, PSC, description, place of performance, and award amount.
• SAM.gov award notices: award-level context when a related notice or prior award is available.
• Agency patterns: whether the buyer tends to use task orders, IDIQs, set-asides, bridge awards, or recurring services.

Official sources: SAM.gov Contract Opportunities and USAspending API.

A Simple Estimation Method

1. Find 5 to 20 comparable awards using similar agency, NAICS, PSC, service description, set-aside, and period of performance.
2. Remove obvious mismatches: much larger vehicles, unrelated scopes, one-time purchases, or awards from a different buyer pattern.
3. Separate base year, option years, ceiling, task order, and single-award values when the records make that possible.
4. Build a low, likely, and high range rather than one fake-precise number.
5. Attach confidence: high when comparable awards are close; low when the scope is vague, vehicle-based, or missing award history.

How Value Changes The Bid/No-Bid Decision

Value is only one factor. A high-value opportunity can still be a no-bid if the scope, eligibility, deadline, or win strategy is weak. A smaller opportunity can be worth pursuing if it fits your proof, buyer path, and delivery capacity.

BidDesk OS includes value estimates in the Bid-Fit Scan so the client can compare likely upside, proposal effort, and risk in the same decision packet.